The official monsoon onset in India will be slightly delayed this year. There will be a delay of 6-7 days according to the IMD and Skymet. There was some correction made in the carry over stocks in India for castor in the meantime. The carry over was expected to be around 200 – 250.000mt but in fact it was more likely between 400 – 450.000mt. On the other hand the harvest estimate was reduced from 1,126 mn tonnes to 1,06 mn tonnes. So a total deficit of 200.000mt of castor seeds is expected when we will see a normal demand this season. Due to the trade challenges between China and the USA about 8,8% less castor oil was exported to China in April. With the high prices in 2019 we might also see a slightly lower demand from industries which do have replacement options for usage of castor oil. So most likely we might not see a real shortage but increasing prices with decreasing stocks.

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